Pocket Jacks has become one of the notorious pairs in the poker industry. There are players who have a disdain for having a pair of jacks as an opening hand compared to queens or tens. 

A few years ago. We saw a player who 4-bet under the gun with pocket jacks. The button players shove all in which the player calls. 

The other player had Ace-king and the board was brick kicking the player out of the tournament. Players on the table actually commended the player’s move as a smart move. 

A few levels later and a change of table. the exact same scenario happens and this time the opponent had ace-queen. However, this time the queen came out eliminating the player. 

After the player left, whispers could be heard on the table that it was a dumb move. 

There is even a parody video of a player on how to play pocket jack online and no matter what he does would simply lose. 

So how do you play pockets jacks?

The Math

Preflop

The math is of course one of the best basis to start on how to play pockets Jacks.

Pocket Jacks belong to the mid pair family. The Mid pair family consists of pocket 8 to pocket 10.

The percentage your opponent has pockets aces is actually only 0.45% and the chance he has a pair of queens is only 1.45%.

Overall the chance that a player post-flop has a higher hand than your jacks is 10.8%. lower if you are in the late position.

The hijacks position is the best position or the player before the button.

Postflop

There are 12 overcards in the deck. the chance the flop will be in your favor is higher.

The chance that there will be no overcard is 38/50 = 76%
The chance there is an overcard is estimated at 43% 

The math and statistic may differ base on a different algorithm, we are using more on a simple base algorithm. but overall. the chance an overcard will land on the flop is at 52%.

The chance your opponent has that overcard is much less.

Statistically speaking, you are the favorite. 

Summary base on percentage

If based only on the percentage, you are far ahead. but poker was never about only percentages. 

Knowing the percentage does help and give you confidence. but there are other key factors to consider. And there is a golden rule

“Never overplay your hand”

Other factors that can change your win rate

Your opponent

An Indian Poker Pro Kunal Patni in an interview once told us.

“My playstyle will always change depending on my opponent. If I have pocket Ace. the way I would play it against a pro and against a fish will be different”

It is very important to note, your opponent is a big factor. Hence there is no clear formula on how to play pocket Jack under the gun because the biggest factors are the players or your opponent. 

Here are the factors you should consider. 

How many opponents. 

Although the percentage is on your side. those percentage is base on a heads up scenario. understand there are 2 factors to consider when assuming percentage.

Although you are a favorite that there will no overcards on the flop base on the percentage.

The probability there is a draw (flush or a straight draw) on the flop is actually 1 out of 12. the probability of a straight draw is also quite good.

If you were to add probable draws against a full ring after the flop. your odds are now against you.

Hence understand that when having pockets jacks. although you are a favorite. eliminating a few opponents but maintaining only a couple is preferred.

Whether you on the early position in late position. The number of opponents you have to face post-flop is a big factor.

Ranges

There are actually two types of ranges. the other type is seldom discussed but is very applicable to low stake games. 

The amount of money your opponent is willing to throw. 

This is an important range that is rarely discussed. although this scenario can be applicable in low stake games, Micro tournaments and if your opponent is a suicidal horse(players who ask financiers or stakers to fund them however will play erratically due to it not being his money.)

It has happened to a very high stake game as well. A few years back in a Triton Event, which was a 100,000 USD buy-in. We witness a player who was playing against High stake pro but was shoving with non-value hand.

A well known Pro 4 bet preflop which was answered by a shove by his opponent. The pro folded while the player who shoves jokingly told his friend in a different language that

“The beauty about playing against a pro is that they are very conscious of their buy-in I just shoved with Q 2 off.”

There are players who are willing to throw money. Even during WPT Manila in Solaire a few years back, a few players who qualified for the 100k USD buy-in tournament day 2 did not show up due to winning more money in baccarat and decided to party all night.

If your tables are full of callers no matter how much you raise. adjustment is needed. the point of a raise is to induce weak players to fold, eliminating bad hands post-flop.

basically a raise is to eliminate bad hands. but when you speak of “4 bets” showing your strong but the table you are in would call any bet under 6 bet like in microgames.

Example

A better example in basing it on Philippine ph. the lowest table game in a poker house is 10-20 PHP. which is approximately 2 us cents. what if your table is filled with rich people having stacks of 10,000 on the table.

A raise of 100 PHP might be big as it is 5 times the big blind. But when your table has a stack of 10,000. the raise of 100 becomes meaningless. a higher raise or a limp might be better than raising base on “5 x the big blind”

The Cards your opponent are willing to call you with

When you make a raise. you can not assume that only ace-king will call you. different players have different ranges. 

There are players who have “favorite hands” like “6-9 suited” and would call with any raise. 

Conclusion

The notoriety of pocket jacks is underserving in a lot of instances.

Most of the time it is all mental. we heard a player once said “I actually pray for ace-king instead of getting pocket aces because there are more outs”

The mentality you put on the game is very important. receiving a good hand is just part of the equation. If poker games were won by simply having the best hand all the time then poker would be boring. 

Assuming you get a good hand but is already expecting to lose. You would play conservatively and even worst Badly, just because you expected to lose. 

The skills you need to sharpen in poker is far beyond the percentages and luck. 

Hope to see you soon! good luck poker playas!